Academics, students, the media and the public have been increasingly drawn to China and India in recent years. Both countries were considered sleeping giants and are now turning into the motors of global economic growth. China and India are both ancient civilizations with a rich history and were among the largest economic powers until European colonization in the 19th century. After Indian independence in 1947 and the establishment of the Peoples Republic of China in 1949 both countries shared the view that economic development should be achieved through a self-sustaining economy led and controlled by the government. In the following decades the share of Chinese and Indian global trade decreased significantly. Economic reform in China and India in 1978 and 1991 respectively resulted in an increasing integration into global markets and triggered large economic growth. It is very important to note that although China and India are both rising at the same point of time, they are rising in a different pace. China outperforms India in almost every indicator of economic development. It is the key aim of this study to point out this asymmetry between China and India. Another question is, if India is capable of catching up with China in the future and its effects to Sino-Indian relations. Die Rolle von China und Indien in der Welt hat sich in den letzten Jahren sehr stark gewandelt. Aus Bittstellern wurden Gläubiger und Motoren für das globale Wirtschaftswachstum. Dieses Buch setzt sich mit den ökonomischen Asymmetrien die zwischen Indien und China existieren auseinander. Ein historischer Überblick über die mehr als 2000 Jahre zurückreichenden ökonomischen Beziehungen ist der Ausgangspunkt der Studie. Beide Volkswirtschaften werden anhand von ökonomischen Indikatoren wie Wirtschaftswachstum, Reduzierung von Armut, Integration in internationale Märkte, demographischer Wandel, institutionelle Herausforderungen usw. miteinander verglichen. In einem zweiten Schritt werden die bilateralen Handelsbeziehungen zwischen Indien und China genau analysiert. Mit Hilfe einfacher ökonomischer Methodik werden Gebiete für Kooperation und Konflikte herausgearbeitet und die gegenseitige Wahrnehmung als Handelspartner analysiert. In einem dritten Schritt werden China und Indien im globalen Handel betrachtet. Hierfür wird die Bedeutung von China und Indien als Import- und Exportpartner für die Welt beschrieben und die am häufigsten gehandelten Produkte systematisch aufgelistet. Dabei lässt sich erkennen in welchen geographischen Gebieten und bei welchen Gütern indisch-chinesische Kooperationen oder Konflikte zu erwarten sind. Eine dynamische Analyse untersucht, ob Indien seinen Rückstand auf China aufholen kann und liefert eine Prognose für zukünftige sino-indische Wirtschaftsbeziehungen.

Text Sample: Latin America: Chinese and Indian trade with Brazil reveals that Chinese exports were 6.8 times larger than India’s in 2004. However the gap decreased to a ratio of 5.7:1 in 2008. Both countries have shown large growth rates in their exports in this time period accounting 49.2%(China) and 53.5%(India) respectively. Brazil is not a major import partner for India. Chinas imports from Brazil increased significantly faster than India’s. In 2004 Chinese imports were 13 times larger than Indian but the ratio increased to 25.7 in 2008. Chinas average import growth rate (32.9%) also exceeded India’s (10.2%). With respect to possible areas of competition, 28 (Metalliferous Ore, Scarp) and 67 (Iron and Steel) are both major import goods for the two countries.28 (Metalliferous Ore, Scarp) accounts for 47.7 % of Chinese and 20.1% of India’s imports from Brazil. On the export side, India and China are likely to face competition in the area of 65 (Textile Yarn, Fabric,ect). However China was able sign major deals with Brazil in 2010 and is expected to continue its relative dominance in Brazil. India’s main export good to Brazil is 33 (Petroleum, Petrol.Product) accounting 49.1% of total exports. Chinas main export good to Brazil is 76 (Telecomm. Sound Equip ect), accounting 16.7%. Chinas exports to Argentina exceeded India’s by the factor 8.1 in 2004 and increased further to 13.2 in 2008. On the import side China also gained relatively to India, increasing the China-India ratio from 6.5 in 2004 to 15.8 in 2008. Regarding import trends it is noteworthy that India’s imports from Argentina have been decreasing between 18-25% during 2006-2008 while Chinas imports increased ranging from 48% to 78%. Analyzing the trade baskets reveals that competition in 42 (Fixed Veg. Fats and Oils) and 61 (Leather, Leather Goods) is likely to occur regarding imports. On the export side 51 (Organic Chemicals), which is the main export article for both countries accounting 15.3% of Chinas exports and 16% of India’s exports is a potential area of competition. Chinas exports to Chile were 16.1 times larger than India’s in 2004 and 14.9 times larger in 2008. China’s imports exceeded India’s by the factor of 11.9 in 2004 and by 6.4 in 2008. Regarding imports, China increased its imports from Chile by 24% annually on average, while India’s imports were quite volatile. Between 2005 and 2006 India’s imports increased by 300%. This can be traced back to trade agreements between India and Chile, since imports stayed on the level. However growth rates slowed down to 22% the following year and decreased by 7% between 2007 and 2008. Analyzing the trade baskets of China and India reveals 68 (Non-Ferrous Metals), 28 (Metalliferous Ore, Scarp) and 52 (Inorganic Chemicals) as possible fields of import competition. On the export side, 84 (Clothing and Assessories) and 65 (Textile Yarn, Fabric,ect ) are possible areas of competition. Therefore in Latin America, there is also a large gap between the involvement of India and China. Only in Chile indicators reveal relative increases of Indian importance as a trade partner. On the other side several areas of possible competition can be identified including 28 (Metalliferous Ore, Scarp), 52 (Inorganic Chemicals), 67 (Iron and Steel), 68 (Non-Ferrous Metals), 74 (General Industl. Mach. Nes), 79 (Other Transport Equipment) and 87 (Scientific Equipment nes) on the import side and 51 (Organic Chemicals), 65 (Textile Yarn, Fabric,ect), 84 (Clothing and Assessories ) and 89 (Misc Manufactured Goods, nes ) on the export side . EU27: The European Union is the largest trade partner of China and also one of the largest partners of India.Chinas exports to EU27 were 7.9 times larger than India’s in 2004. The gap increased slightly to 8.4 in 2008. Chinese imports outperformed India’s by the factor of 2.8 in 2004 and decreased the factor 2.5 in 2008. Analyzing the trade baskets reveals that both countries list 74(General Industl. Mach. Nes), 77 (Elec Mch Appar,Parts, nes), 72(Special. Indust. Machinery) and 79 (Other Transport Equipment) as their major import goods from Europe. On the export side, 84 (Clothing and Assessories) is a possible area of competition, since it is India’s first and China’s third largest export commodity to Europe. Africa: Chinas exports to Nigeria exceeds India’s by the factor of 3.18 in 2004 and by 4.9 in 2008. Regarding imports a major shift occurred during the time of analyzis. In 2004 Chinese imports exceeded India’s by the factor 8.7. However since 2006 Indian imports started to surge (increased by 900% in one year, because of a major contract regarding oil drilling rights) and in 2008 Indian imports from Nigeria were 19.1 times larger than China’s. The import trade baskets reveal that India and China import mostly 33 (Petroleum, Petrol. Product) from Nigeria. Petroleum and petroleum products account for 96.4% and 81.8% of exports respectively. However given the large demand of oil by China this indicates, that Nigeria is not a major supplier of 33 (Petroleum, Petrol. Product) to China. Regarding exports both countries are likely to engage in competition in 78 (Roads Vehicles). Regarding Sudan, the picture is quite different. In Sudan, Chinas exports exceeded India’s by the factor 3.3 in 2004 and by 4.6 in 2008. Chinese imports from Sudan were 74,7 times larger than India’s in 2004 and the ratio dropped to 11.6 in 2008. Both countries increased their exports to Sudan on a double digit percentage level while data from 2008 shows India’s increase (31.1%) ahead of China’s (20.5%). Regarding import growth, China’s largest increase occurred in 2007. It is noteworthy that China is a major investor in order to obtain Sudanese oil. India’s imports from Sudan increased significantly in 2006 (+253%).

• China

• India

• trade relations

• competition

• cooperation

• Asia

Moritz Rudolf, Jahrgang 1986 studierte an der Universität Heidelberg Economics und Jura und plant seine Doktorarbeit über die Rolle von Interessengruppen in Chinesisch-Indischen Energiesicherheitsbeziehungen zu schreiben. Er hat mehrere Jahre in China studiert (Tsinghua University Beijing) und ein Praktikum in der Economics und Finance Section der Eurpäischen Union in Beijing absolviert. Er setzt sich intensiv mit dem ökonomischen Ausstieg von China und Indien und deren Auswirkungen auf den asiatischen Kontinent auseinander. Die Analyse der Asymmetrien zwischen China und Indien bezüglich Wirtschaftsleistung , bilateralen Handel und Rolle in internationalen Märkten ist das Grundgerüst eines langfristig angelegtem Projekts, um chinesisch-indische Beziehungen in ihrer Komplexität zu verstehen.